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Fastest Four Minutes in Finance

Financial insights and updates to help make you financially smarter in four minutes or less. Stay up to date on what’s going on in the market (and anywhere else in the world) that could impact you and your money. 

Featured Episode

In this week's Fastest Four market update, we analyze the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's recent failure and its potential impact on the banking sector. We also take a look at the current inflation data and the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Finally, we discuss how investors nearing retirement can stick to their plan and navigate through these uncertain economic conditions. #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketupdate #marketcommentary #retirement #investing #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom #siliconvalley #siliconvalleybank #svb #inflation #federalreserve #interestrates #banking #lpl #lplresearch #jeffreyroach #financialcrisis #liquidity ************ TRANSCRIPT It has been a whirlwind of big news in the past week, and most of it was initially shocking. It started last Friday with the announcement that Silicon Valley Bank had failed. If you need more information about that, including why it happened, and what it could mean for you, one of our GenWealth founders, John Shrewsbury offers his thoughts on our Facebook page. From a broader evaluation, some other regional banks are also struggling, and other businesses beginning to struggle to meet debt obligations. A key concern for investors is whether will this spread throughout the banking sector. Our friends at LPL Research tell us the answer is – not likely.  In fact, unlike during the Financial Crisis of 2008, larger banks have plenty of cash. Cash holdings at commercial banks are roughly 14% of total assets. In 2008, that number was about 3%.  The bottom line is big banks are better equipped to meet liquidity needs than the small number of regional banks that have been forced to sell bonds at a loss to try to raise cash.  This week, we got new inflation data for the month of February, and it was mostly encouraging. Headline inflation rose 6% year-over-year. That’s the lowest rate since September 2021. The monthly rate was up 0.4%, which was down slightly from January.   Food prices were up 0.3%, the smallest increase since April 2021. Grocery prices were only up 0.25%, but restaurant prices rose by 0.63%. Labor costs factor into restaurant pricing more heavily.   The inflation data was better in February than in January. The big question, in light of recent developments, is what will the Fed do with interest rates? There’s little question that the stock market is waiting for a signal from the Fed that the rate hiking cycle will soon be over. It could be a catalyst for market growth.   There is also little doubt that the economy is slowing and recession risk is rising for 2023. It would be logical to believe the Fed’s work could be done soon.  However, LPL Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach provides some caution to that thought. He says growth is not the priority for the Fed. Inflation is. And we continued to see inflation trend in the right direction with this month’s data. But, Roach believes it’s too soon to believe the Fed will call off the rate hikes just yet. He says we should still expect a 0.25% rate hike later this month, with rate hikes being paused by summer, if not sooner. He’s even optimistic that the economy could even grow, ever so slightly in this calendar year.  Bottom line – for investors nearing retirement, you should continue to stick to your plan. Your investment strategy for retirement should expect times such as these, with conservative investments set up to utilize in the early years of retirement, and riskier investments set up to use in the later years of retirement.   What happened to Silicon Valley Bank is a great example. If they had more cash to use while rates were going up, they wouldn’t be forced to sell bonds at a loss. They would be able to give the bonds more time to recover as rates stabilize.    We always say what matters more than THE economy, is YOUR economy. In this case, take a lesson from THE economy, and don’t fail to plan.  ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video VVVURWk4ODRvVmpfZmNFZmxlN2NYLTNBLkh2VU1mMW5ja0pz

Market Update: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

March 15th

In this week's Fastest Four market update, we analyze the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's recent failure and its potential impact on the banking sector. We also take a look at the current inflation data and the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Finally, we discuss how investors nearing retirement can stick to their plan and navigate through these uncertain economic conditions. #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketupdate #marketcommentary #retirement #investing #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom #siliconvalley #siliconvalleybank #svb #inflation #federalreserve #interestrates #banking #lpl #lplresearch #jeffreyroach #financialcrisis #liquidity ************ TRANSCRIPT It has been a whirlwind of big news in the past week, and most of it was initially shocking. It started last Friday with the announcement that Silicon Valley Bank had failed. If you need more information about that, including why it happened, and what it could mean for you, one of our GenWealth founders, John Shrewsbury offers his thoughts on our Facebook page. From a broader evaluation, some other regional banks are also struggling, and other businesses beginning to struggle to meet debt obligations. A key concern for investors is whether will this spread throughout the banking sector. Our friends at LPL Research tell us the answer is – not likely.  In fact, unlike during the Financial Crisis of 2008, larger banks have plenty of cash. Cash holdings at commercial banks are roughly 14% of total assets. In 2008, that number was about 3%.  The bottom line is big banks are better equipped to meet liquidity needs than the small number of regional banks that have been forced to sell bonds at a loss to try to raise cash.  This week, we got new inflation data for the month of February, and it was mostly encouraging. Headline inflation rose 6% year-over-year. That’s the lowest rate since September 2021. The monthly rate was up 0.4%, which was down slightly from January.   Food prices were up 0.3%, the smallest increase since April 2021. Grocery prices were only up 0.25%, but restaurant prices rose by 0.63%. Labor costs factor into restaurant pricing more heavily.   The inflation data was better in February than in January. The big question, in light of recent developments, is what will the Fed do with interest rates? There’s little question that the stock market is waiting for a signal from the Fed that the rate hiking cycle will soon be over. It could be a catalyst for market growth.   There is also little doubt that the economy is slowing and recession risk is rising for 2023. It would be logical to believe the Fed’s work could be done soon.  However, LPL Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach provides some caution to that thought. He says growth is not the priority for the Fed. Inflation is. And we continued to see inflation trend in the right direction with this month’s data. But, Roach believes it’s too soon to believe the Fed will call off the rate hikes just yet. He says we should still expect a 0.25% rate hike later this month, with rate hikes being paused by summer, if not sooner. He’s even optimistic that the economy could even grow, ever so slightly in this calendar year.  Bottom line – for investors nearing retirement, you should continue to stick to your plan. Your investment strategy for retirement should expect times such as these, with conservative investments set up to utilize in the early years of retirement, and riskier investments set up to use in the later years of retirement.   What happened to Silicon Valley Bank is a great example. If they had more cash to use while rates were going up, they wouldn’t be forced to sell bonds at a loss. They would be able to give the bonds more time to recover as rates stabilize.    We always say what matters more than THE economy, is YOUR economy. In this case, take a lesson from THE economy, and don’t fail to plan.  ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS43MTI1NDIwOTMwQjIxMzNG

March 15th

In this week’s Fastest 4 Minutes in Finance, an update on what lawmakers and lobbyists are up to, that could change the rules around retirement and investing. #genwealth #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketupdate #marketcommentary #marketupdate #retirement #investing #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom ************ TRANSCRIPT We’re focusing on three bits of news this week that caught our attention: First, President Biden released his budget plan this week. He’s made it very clear that he plans to raise taxes.   One of his tax hikes would increase the Medicare tax on high-income earners. The President is proposing raising the tax from 3.8% to 5% on Americans who earn more than $400,000 per year. The proposal would also eliminate a tax loophole that business owners and higher earners use to avoid paying higher rates.  The additional tax money would be used to strengthen Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust fund, known as "Medicare Part A" which is free to Americans 65 and older. The most recent Medicare Trustees report estimates the fund could reach insolvency in 5 years. The proposal has little chance of getting out of the Republican-controlled House.  Also in Washington, a bipartisan group of Senators is meeting to come up with possible solutions to the Social Security problem. The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent by 2032. That wouldn’t mean that benefits would not be paid out, but it could mean that they would be slashed if no action is taken by Congress.  On the table is the creation of a sovereign wealth fund to help finance Social Security. This would involve seeding the fund with more than $1.5 trillion dollars, and investing it. But, not without a backstop.   The senators are also considering raising the Full Retirement age to 70 for future recipients, increasing the maximum taxable income subject to Social Security taxes, and increasing the tax percentage.   The group doesn’t expect to have recommendations until later in the year, but we do know about a few things they are considering.  And, finally, a group called the Insured Retirement Institute, a lobbyist group for the annuity industry, is pushing to not only include annuities in employer-sponsored retirement plans, but for the government to mandate that they be the default investment for a portion of the workers’ contributions.  The group is asking lawmakers to require employer retirement plans to offer participants who have an account balance of at least $200,000 to put up to half of their balance into an annuity with a lifetime guaranteed income. This was part of the SECURE 2.0 legislation, but was dropped before Congress passed the legislation in December.   Annuities can be a valuable investment for many Americans in retirement, but mandating that they be used when the investor doesn’t understand what they may be getting themselves into is a bad idea. Investments, particularly complicated ones, are best chosen through an overall plan created with a trusted financial advisor.  In fact, potential changes are always happening, and it’s a financial advisor’s job to keep up to date on the changes for their clients. Another value of working with an advisor to help you achieve TRUE financial independence.   ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS5DNzE1RjZEMUZCMjA0RDBB

March 9th

This video is private.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS45NzUwQkI1M0UxNThBMkU0

March 9th

While consumers have endured the past two years of higher-than-normal inflation, it’s how they are doing it that is starting to raise some red flags for the economy. We break it down in this week's #FastestFour Minutes in Finance 💲 #genwealth #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketcommentary #marketupdate #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom #creditcard #creditcarddebt ************ TRANSCRIPT As good as January was for the stock market, February was equally as bad.   The S&P 500 index rose more than 5% in January, but was down about 3.7% in the shortest month of the year, driven down by: higher-than-expected inflation numbers from January and the specter of longer-than-expected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.  But, while inflation and interest rate hikes dominate the news, we are going to focus in this week’s Fastest 4 on a piece of economic data that doesn’t get a lot of headlines.  This week we’re talking about the LEI. That stands for Leading Economic Index. If we are looking to see where the stock market is headed, we need to look ahead, not backward.  The Leading Economic Index is an aggregate of 10 economic and market indicators, including interest rate spreads, new business orders, building permits, manufacturing new orders and hours, and unemployment.   The Index declined 0.3% for the month, and 5.9% over the past year, a slight improvement from the one-year change the previous month.  The LEI was down 3.6% over the six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023. That’s a sharper drop than the 2.4% decline the six months prior to that.  The easy takeaway is that the U.S. economic engine is slowing down. But the harder takeaway is – how will the stock market respond to it?  You could argue that much of the poor stock market performance over the past year has been due to the market pricing where we are headed. But, we’ve been saying for months that the first half of 2023 will likely continue to be volatile, as investors pay close attention to every piece of economic news released. That news is volatile in itself. Bad news one week, good news the next week. And sometimes, the good news is perceived as bad news, and the bad news as good news simply because of market expectations.  Now back to the LEI, and how those numbers could impact markets. (A quick warning that we are about to dive deep for a minute here!) There’s an interesting chart from LPL Financial that shows us that weakness in the LEI at roughly the current level has signaled near-term risk for markets, but longer-term growth: The two lines of the chart show the six and twelve-month market expectations based on where the LEI is.  The gold line is the next 6 months. The blue line is the next 12 months. The blue box shows where the LEI is currently. You can see the near term of 6 months indicates a pretty flat market from here. But, if the LEI dips another percentage point or two, the 6-month outlook is much more favorable, as long as it doesn’t get much worse from there, which would likely mean a deeper recession.  The 12-month outlook is much better from here. The S&P 500 is up 8% to 10%, 12 months following year-over-year numbers similar to the February LEI.  Bottom line, this supports LPL’s outlook that the next 6 months could continue to be a bumpy ride but we could get less volatility and ride up in the back half of the year, giving us hope that 2023 could be a good year for the stock market.  ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS4zRjM0MkVCRTg0MkYyQTM0

March 2nd

While consumers have endured the past two years of higher-than-normal inflation, it’s how they are doing it that is starting to raise some red flags for the economy. We break it down in this week's #FastestFour Minutes in Finance 💲 #genwealth #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketcommentary #marketupdate #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom #creditcard #creditcarddebt ************ TRANSCRIPT While consumers have endured the past two years of higher-than-normal inflation, it’s how they are doing it that is starting to raise some red flags for the economy.  Last week, the New York Fed released data that showed 💳 credit card debt has reached a record high of $986 billion.  Balances grew by $61 billion in the 4th quarter of 2022. That was the largest quarterly increase ever. The rate at which credit card users missed their monthly payments and became more than 90 days behind is also on the rise.   The average credit card interest rate is now near 20%, that’s the highest in 37 years.  The strapped American consumer is getting hit with a double whammy 🥴 Higher prices make it more difficult for their dollars to buy the same things they used to, and higher interest rates will make it more difficult to pay back what they borrow.  For the overall U.S. economy, this highlights the reality that which way the economy is headed will be decided by a hard deadline somewhere in the near future.  Americans can only endure the current economic environment for so long. Either inflation needs to come down, interest rates need to come down, or workers need a bigger raise. And really, all three need to happen.  But, as we say often at GenWealth Financial Advisors, THE economy, matters less than YOUR economy.  What this really means is – control what you can control. You can’t control inflation or interest rates, but you can control your spending.  If your dollar is not going as far as it used to, you need to evaluate what you're spending money on.  If you’ve decided to take a vacation, or buy new furniture and you are willing to put it on a credit card, knowing that you can’t pay off the balance, that’s a decision that you shouldn’t make.  If you’re carrying a large credit card balance, make a plan to attack it, and get rid of it. There is plenty of debt-elimination software available online that will show you how to do that. You could also find a financial advisor to help create the plan, and provide some accountability to successfully work it.  If you are cash-strapped to the point you are paying for groceries, gas or other necessities with a credit card, and can’t pay off the balance, take a look first at why. What else are you spending money on? Are you spending too much on rent, paying too much for your car? And what about monthly subscriptions? Can you eliminate some or all of them and save some money?  The secret to staying out of credit card debt is creating margin between your income and expenses. If the margin is too thin, you’ll be tempted into borrowing. Not to mention, you won’t be saving for the future, so when an emergency expense comes around, you’ll have to borrow even more.  Working with a financial advisor to create a comprehensive financial plan can help put you on the right path, so no matter what happens this year in THE economy, you are improving YOUR economy.  ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS5GM0Q3M0MzMzY5NTJFNTdE

February 23rd

The 🔥 hot start to the year for the stock market has 🥶 cooled in the past couple of weeks. The reason? Investors are digesting "good news" as "bad news," and "great news" as even "worse news." Why? We break it down in this week's #FastestFour Minutes in Finance 💲 #genwealth #genwealthfinancial #scottinman #fastestfourminutesinfinance #finance #marketcommentary #marketupdate #financialadvisor #financialadvisors #financialeducation #financialliteracy #financialfreedom #inflation #inflationreport #januaryinflation #stockmarket #interestrates ##federalreserve #cpi #interestrates #unemployment #retailsales #retail ************ TRANSCRIPT The 🔥 hot start to the year for the stock market has 🥶 cooled in the past couple of weeks. The reason? Investors are digesting good news as bad news, and great news as even worse news.  The January inflation report was released on Tuesday, and it came in a little hotter than expected. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month, and 6.4% year-over-year. The year-over-year number is lower than the previous month, but not by much.  Check out this chart from LPL Research, showing the inflation trend. The Federal Reserve preferred inflation rate is about 2%. You can see the four major tracking measurements for inflation were close to that for about 8 years. The COVID-19 pandemic drove inflation down briefly as demand was shut off by the federal government shutting down the economy in 2020. Then, the re-opening sent off the current spike in inflation, hitting its peak last year, and now it’s clearly coming down. That’s good news.  It’s just that inflation is not coming down fast enough for the stock market. Investors want to see that number fall faster - they want to see the end of Federal Reserve rate hikes.   The Fed has raised rates every meeting for the past year now in an effort to cool demand, which in turn, is a hope to cool inflation. It seems to be working, at least in certain sectors of the economy.  We all know the housing market has cooled because of higher mortgage rates. Embedded in this past month’s overall inflation data, was a drop of 11% in used car and truck prices. Medical services have fallen in three out of the last four months. But groceries, restaurants, and energy were all up.  🛍️ Retail sales data for January was released on Wednesday, showing a 3% rise - the largest one-month jump since March 2021. Big jumps were seen in auto sales, restaurants, electronic stores, and furniture outlets.   The American consumer continues to spend money. Unemployment remains at a 50-year low. It’s getting harder and harder to see a recession coming.  In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs reduced their likelihood of a recession this year from 35% to just 25% That’s great news, but not for the stock market. The S&P 500 dropped when the retail sales data came out this week. The great news was seen as even worse news when laid against the backdrop of a rising interest rate environment. Higher sales mean high demand, which could mean continued high inflation, which could mean a longer cycle of rate hikes.  It is an economic tug-of-war, which really means "business as usual" for a long-term investor. You should always expect short-term volatility. Where we are headed in 2023, shouldn’t make much difference to an investor with a long-term plan built to be invested in equities for a decade or longer.  Short-term volatility can be a big problem for a near-term retiree, though, if they’re planning to utilize their assets as income. That plan should still be invested in equities too, but not for the assets needed for income in the near term.   If you need a plan, a GenWealth advisor is available to help. Thanks for listening. ******** Want more content like this (plus bonus content you won't get anywhere else) delivered straight to your inbox? 📥 Visit fastest4.com! FINANCIALLY SMARTER FOUR MINUTES AT A TIME financial insights and updates delivered to your inbox weekly WHAT TO EXPECT: One four-minute video with relevant financial information. Three things you should know from the past week in finance. Two informative or inspirational quotes. One question to ask yourself to make sure you are staying on track with your personal finances. WHAT NOT TO EXPECT: Overly "salesy" material More emails than you signed up for (we hate spam too) Unicorns. You definitely can't expect that. GenWealth Financial Advisors getreadyforthefuture.com Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance. Independent Advisor Alliance and GenWealth Financial Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.
YouTube Video UExwOEdIXzI3QmVJZndZVm83QXVFUm1BQk9sMmdFbFRBaS4yMDhBMkNBNjRDMjQxQTg1

February 15th

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