SpaceX, Anthropic & OpenAI — The Shift from Private to Public Markets
For years some of the most valuable companies in the world have stayed private, but that may be changing. In recent weeks, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have all taken major steps toward potential public offerings.
Combined $3.5 Trillion Valuation — Breaking Down the Numbers
Let’s start with the numbers. Reports suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation in the range of $1.5 to $1.75 trillion. Anthropic recently completed a funding round at a post-money valuation of roughly $965 billion. And OpenAI has confidentially filed for an initial public offering at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. Put that together and you’re looking at nearly $3.5 trillion in combined value.
Modernizing the IPO Process: How Companies Are Arriving at Public Markets Bigger Than Ever
What’s especially interesting is that we’re also seeing discussions around modernizing the IPO process itself. Regulators and exchanges have spent years examining ways to streamline listings, expand direct offerings, and allow companies to remain private longer before entering public markets. The result is that companies are now arriving at the public markets much larger and more mature than they did a decade ago.
S&P 500 Concentration & the Rise of AI-Driven Tech Giants
If these valuations hold, all three companies would immediately rank among the largest publicly traded companies in the world. At the same time, regulators and exchanges have spent years working to streamline listings, expand direct offerings, and let companies stay private longer.
The result is that companies are arriving at the public markets far more mature and larger than they did a decade ago. So why does this matter? Here’s some context. Right now, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 make up nearly 40% of the entire index. Nine of those 10 are technology companies or businesses tied to AI, cloud computing, semiconductors, or digital platforms — Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla. By private market measure, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are already among the largest companies in the world by any standard. Any public listings of this scale would be notable additions to the public markets.
Microsoft, Amazon & Nvidia — Existing Tech Leaders’ Stakes in the AI Ecosystem
That doesn’t necessarily mean today’s tech leaders lose ground. In many cases, they’re deeply connected to these emerging companies. Microsoft has invested heavily in OpenAI. Amazon has invested billions in Anthropic. And Nvidia’s hardware powers much of the AI infrastructure behind the industry.
IPO Historical Performance — What 30 Years of Data Tells Investors
What makes this potential cycle notable is its scale. But here’s what history actually shows us about IPOs. LPL Research analyzed over 1,400 IPOs from the last 30 years and found that the average one-year return was positive — about 10%. But the median return was negative. The typical IPO experienced a maximum drawdown of nearly 49% in its first year of trading. And only about 40% of IPOs outperformed the S&P 500 over that period. The lesson isn’t that IPOs are bad — it’s that size, buzz, and innovation don’t automatically translate into investment returns. Understanding the difference between a great company and a great investment, at a given price, is always the right starting point.
Largest IPO Cycle Since the Dot-Com Era — The Bottom Line
The bottom line is this. We could be looking at the largest IPO cycle since the dot-com era. Not because of how many companies are going public, but because how big they are. Whether these offerings happen, and when, remains to be seen.
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Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
LPL Financial does not offer access to or purchase of initial public offerings (IPOs). This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research, a recommendation, or a solicitation regarding any specific security or issuer. All performance data is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
